The West's choice: invade Iraq now or fight a 100 year war against IS.

Fundamentalist Islam is not new. The Moslem Brotherhood was formed in 1928 and has worked since that time to bring all the countries of the Middle East under Islamic religious law. It has been seen variously as an ally and an enemy by Arab regimes since that time. Its progeny, Al-Qaeda came into being in 1989 committed to ridding Moslem countries of both the Soviet Union and Western influences. It also committed itself to establishment of a world-wide caliphate. It has only been relatively recently however, with the rise of IS, also called ISIS, ISIL or Da’ish that we have seen a large number of young Moslems in countries like Britain and Australia travelling to the Middle East to fight with extremist forces or plan mass attacks on their home countries.

So what makes IS different?

The answer is victory.

What IS has done, which has taken it beyond the achievements of the Brotherhood and Al-Qaeda is to forge what looks like a plausible military force out of a mish-mash of Syrian rebels and successfully invade, and conquer, about a third of Iraq. They say nothing succeeds like success and, while the September 11^th attack on New York inspired a number of young Moslems to carry out terrorist acts in Western countries, the achievement of IS in capturing entire provinces, including major cities, in Iraq has served to provide ongoing inspiration to potential recruits worldwide.

While individual terrorist attacks such as New York and Madrid inspire copy-cat attacks in the immediate aftermath, media reports of IS atrocities provide enticement and appeal for would-be jihadists on a daily basis. The success of IS also offers a different sort of invitation to potential recruits. Where Al-Qaeda invited people to commit individual, often solitary, acts of martyrdom such as being suicide bombers, IS invites them to join an army and fight side by side with comrades in a "Band-of-Brothers" situation where the primary aim is not martyrdom but actual military victory.

As long as IS keeps winning battles in Iraq it will continue to be an inspiration and an attraction to young Moslems keen to commit to a heroic cause.

In addition, seizing of large tracts of Iraq has not just increased Islamic State’s appeal and reputation, it has also increased their revenue. Massive income from selling oil, “taxation” in occupied zones, sale of antiquities and straight-out extortion means that IS can conduct a worldwide Internet campaign via websites, Facebook and Twitter inviting people to “join us.”

What this means it that the half-hearted approach by the West in dealing with IS is an invitation to disaster. The current dictum that “It’s the Iraqis’’ problem, they should deal with it” is only going to ultimately create a worse problem for the western powers. It has already been demonstrated that the Iraqi army is unable to recapture territory permanently from IS and can only hope, at best, to prevent Baghdad falling.

Even if the Iraqi army can drive back IS, which might take a generation, so much more damage will be done in the meantime. IS will  continue to be an inspiration to wannabe fighters around the world even if it only holds onto the territory it has already occupied. And it will also have time to radicalise another generation of people within those occupied areas.  

In 2005 Jordanian journalist Fouad Hussein revealed the 7 step Islamist “master-plan” as explained to him by Al-Qaeda head al-Zarqawi. In this plan, which so far the Islamists have followed almost exactly, the 5^th step, scheduled for 2013-2016, was the declaration of an Islamic caliphate  - which IS has done – and the breaking down of Western and Israeli resistance in preparation for a  massive all-out confrontation in Step 6.  What is concerning is that, even if this plan turns out to be over-ambitious – in, for example, anticipating world victory for Islam by 2020 – its failure will not mean that the Islamists will give up. Several Islamic militants have declared that they are prepared to fight for 100 years to establish Islam as the world religion.

The smartest thing that the Western powers could do right now is send a massive multi-lateral force into Iraq and remove IS completely from that country. That would limit IS's operations to its involvement in the Syrian civil war and would massively reduce its income but, more importantly, suffering a massive defeat would substantially reduce its reputation and appeal to young people world wide. A series of trials for captured leaders would also demonstrate the West’s lack of tolerance for terrorist movements.

Unfortunately, the West, in particular the US under Obama, have a strong aversion to sending American troops to the Middle East which is a pity because if they don’t do so soon, they will be forced to fight a much greater war, both in the Middle East and at home, for many decades to come.